Raymond Group Shares Shockingly Plummet 40%: An In-Depth Analysis of Today’s Crash

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Why Raymond Group Shares Crashed 40% Today: A Closer Look

Background Raymond Group Companies :

Raymond Group
  • On the trading day when Raymond Group shares nosedived by 40%, the company was undergoing a significant corporate action: the demerger of its lifestyle business.
  • The demerger aimed to separate the lifestyle business from the rest of Raymond Ltd.
  • Existing investors of Raymond Group would receive four shares of Raymond Lifestyle (RLL) for every five Raymond shares they held.
  • The demerged lifestyle business would be listed separately on stock exchanges around August-September.

Immediate Impact:

Raymond Group
  • Raymond Group shares opened at Rs 1,906 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), down 39.60% from the previous day’s closing value of Rs 3,156.10.
  • The stock price reflected the value of Raymond Ltd. excluding the lifestyle business.
  • Market participants reacted swiftly to the demerger news, resulting in a sharp decline.

Valuation Considerations:

Raymond Group
  • Analysts estimated the per-share value of Raymond Ltd. post the corporate action.
    • MOFSL (Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited) estimated a value of Rs 1,415 per share.
    • This valuation included Rs 1,200 per share for real estate assets and Rs 215 for the engineering business.
    • The lifestyle business was expected to be listed at Rs 2,930 per share, according to domestic brokerage InCred Equities.
  • InCred Equities further estimated:
    • Lifestyle business fair value: Rs 1,982 per share
    • Realty business fair value: Rs 1,086 per share
    • Engineering business fair value: Rs 499 per share

Long-Term Strategy:

  • The demerger of the lifestyle business is part of a broader plan.
  • Raymond Group also intends to demerge its real estate business, a process that may take 15-18 months to complete.
  • After the real estate demerger, the remaining Raymond entity will focus solely on the engineering business.

Real Estate Potential:

  • Raymond Group owns 100 acres of legacy land in Thane, out of which 40 acres are under development.
  • The revenue potential from the 40 acres under development is Rs 9,000 crore.
  • The remaining area has a revenue potential of Rs 16,000 crore, expected to accrue over approximately 8 years.
  • The joint development agreements (JDAs) contribute an additional revenue potential of Rs 7,000 crore, expected within 4-5 years.
  • The real estate business has Rs 500 crore in cash reserves and no significant capital requirements for the next 2 years.

Engineering Business Outlook:

  • The acquisition of MPPL (Machining Power Private Limited) has unlocked substantial value in aerospace and defence.
  • Arihant Capital Markets predicts the engineering business will reach an annual run rate of Rs 4,000 crore within 3 years.
  • It is expected to maintain a stable EBITDA margin of 25%.
  • Raymond plans to expand further through joint development agreements rather than acquiring new land.

Investor Takeaways:

  • Investors should closely monitor Raymond Group’s real estate demerger and the subsequent listing of the lifestyle business.
  • Assess the fair value estimates provided by different brokerages.
  • Consider the long-term prospects of the engineering business.
  • Raymond’s strategic moves aim to unlock value, but prudent investment decisions require careful evaluation.

In summary, while the recent share price crash was a reaction to the demerger, investors should focus on the company’s long-term vision and the potential of its business segments. 🚀💼

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