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The New “Hard Line”: How US and Canadian Policies Are Squeezing Immigrants—And Why Indian NRIs Feel the Heat

Key findings at a glance

• US federal policy has shifted toward expansive interior enforcement and new ideological screening, with executive actions signed on January 20, 2025 and subsequent USCIS guidance that now weighs “anti-Americanism” and antisemitic activity when deciding green cards, naturalisation, and other benefits.
• Actual deportations have surged—nearly 200,000 ICE removals in the first seven months of 2025, on pace for the highest in a decade (still largely focused on the undocumented).
• States’ toughest immigration laws keep getting blocked by federal courts (e.g., Texas SB4; Florida’s crackdown), underscoring that immigration enforcement remains a federal power.
• Canada is “resetting” immigration, capping study permits, tightening post-study work rules, and signalling sharp reductions in temporary residents—moves that disproportionately affect Indian students, the largest cohort. Rejection rates for Indians spiked in 2025.
• Scale of the India–Canada education link shows the impact: India was the top source for study permits (and among the top sources for PR), so policy tightening hits Indian applicants hardest.

United States: From deportations to “ideology” checks

Executive orders & enforcement. On Jan 20, 2025, the White House signed “Protecting the American People Against Invasion,” a foundational order that set the tone for aggressive enforcement across the interior, not just at the border. It directed federal agencies to “faithfully execute” immigration laws with a public-safety framing.

A measurable surge in removals. By late August, ICE had deported nearly 200,000 people—placing FY2025 on track for the highest removals in roughly a decade (though still below some Obama-era peaks). This points to intensified operations but primarily against the undocumented, not a blanket deportation of lawful residents.

New ideological vetting for “lawful” applicants. In August 2025, USCIS formally updated its policy: officers can weigh “anti-Americanism” and antisemitic activity—including on social media—when making discretionary decisions on green cards, naturalisation (“good moral character”), and other benefits. Civil-liberties groups warn the standard is fuzzy and could enable bias; supporters say benefits are a privilege and values matter. Reporting from major outlets flagged the free-speech and subjectivity concerns.

What this means for Indian NRIs in the US.

• Lawful status isn’t being categorically “deported,” but denials, delays, RFEs, and revocations could rise if officers cite “ideological” or security grounds.
• Social media is now part of the file. Posts construed as antisemitic or “anti-American” can count against you in discretionary calls on visas, green cards, and citizenship.
• State crackdowns keep hitting legal walls. Texas SB4 and Florida measures were blocked or curtailed—immigration remains under federal control.

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Canada: From “open doors” to “controlled intake”

Capping student permits and trimming temporary residents. Ottawa has capped international study permits (with further tightening in 2025 relative to 2024) and narrowed post-graduation work permit (PGWP) eligibility, explicitly aiming to restore “sustainability.” Policy documents and departmental plans across 2024–2025 outline the shift.

Ongoing rule tweaks. In July 2025, IRCC updated which fields of study remain PGWP-eligible after briefly removing several CIP codes—illustrating the fluidity and uncertainty institutions and students are navigating.

Why do Indians feel it most? India is Canada’s largest source market for international students and a leading source for PR; when caps bite or refusals rise, Indians are disproportionately affected. Multiple reports in Oct–Nov 2025 show steep drops in Indian applicants and unusually high refusal rates, amid a broader crackdown on fraud and non-compliance.

Compliance spotlight. IRCC told Parliament that about 47,000 foreign students may now be in Canada without a valid status, with India among the top countries implicated—further hardening official attitudes and scrutiny.

Are legal immigrants being “targeted”?

• US: The deportation surge is aimed at the undocumented, but the ideological screening and expanded discretion now touch lawful applicants, creating a real risk of denials, status loss, or denaturalisation efforts tied to speech or associations. That’s why it feels like the line between “illegal” and “legal” is blurring in practice—even if the law still treats them differently.
• Canada: The intent is system-wide stabilisation (housing, fraud control, labour matching), not a nationality ban. Yet because Indians are the largest cohort, tighter caps and PGWP limits hit them hardest, fuelling a perception of targeting.

Racism and safety: What the numbers say (and don’t)

Governments frame changes as economic or security policy, but Indian communities report rising anxiety as immigration becomes more politicised. While hate-crime reporting lags and varies by jurisdiction, the policy environment itself—ideological vetting, mass-deportation rhetoric, and high-profile campus cases—has a chilling effect, especially on students and workers whose status depends on discretion. (For example, federal social-media screening for antisemitic content is already operative at USCIS.)

Practical risk-reduction for NRIs and immigrants (US & Canada)

1. Treat immigration as “compliance + optics.” Assume online speech will be reviewed. Avoid content that can be construed as support for violence, antisemitism, or “anti-Americanism.” Save screenshots of context for posts you keep.
2. Audit your paperwork. Keep status, employer letters, tax filings, and travel histories up to date; promptly respond to RFEs.
3. For Canada-bound students: Prioritise programs and institutions with strong compliance records; verify PGWP eligibility for your field at the time you enrol (rules are changing).
4. Contingency planning. Discuss backup pathways (e.g., alternative destinations, remote roles, or intra-company transfers) with an immigration attorney.
5. Document discrimination. If you face bias or threats, report locally and to consular services; keep written records for any future legal use.

Bottom line

• In the US, 2025 marked a policy pivot: more removals of the undocumented and new ideological filters that reach into the lives of law-abiding applicants, making previously routine benefits less predictable.
• In Canada, a deliberate “immigration reset” is shrinking and reshaping temporary streams—especially international students—and by sheer numbers, Indians feel the brunt. Expect tighter screening and higher bars to persist into 2026–28.

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